The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking

In some domains in the real world, it is so messy that you can't even verify something from reality. In a crowded swimming pool with 40 kids jumping up and down and rain overhead, then it's really up to whatever your prior beliefs are or what tribe you're part of. So, I totally agree with the principle that you have to not take anything at face value and try to kind of test everything. But there is just the scarcity of bandwidth and time and also the world is so complex that, you know, everybody's not going to figure out how to do this. It's just mind-boggling.

Transcript

Play full episode

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts

Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.