Data Assets & Alpha Group: Assessing US Market Opportunities Ahead of Q2 Earnings
Making Sense
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Is the Fed Hitting Into a Slow Economy?
The fed's behavior governs both the second and third points regarding resertion probabilities. A more devilish view of the fet inh two may lead one to conclude that the economy avoids a recession in the next 12 months. The variance of views on both the fet and the economy is leading to a higher val regime as investors express these views. Vi the race options market s val has pushed credit, equity and f x vall higher. It has created a distortion in credit markets where j p m research believes that fundamentals are stronger than credit spreads imply. Within equities, we have moved a val regime that has kept the vix in a 20 to 35 range, versus averaging about 14 and a
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