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#53 - Kelsey Piper on the room for important advocacy within journalism

80,000 Hours Podcast

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The Probability of a Recession

I think that's very fair it's a claim where the person who made it will definitely at the end of the year be able to make the case that they were right which is different than different from it actually being true yeah so do you want to go through some of the predictions that you made and kind of how we arrived at your confidence levelYeah absolutely. So we looked at some politics topics you know who is going to be the democratic nominee whether Trump is even going to stay in officeWhether the US would enter a recession was another one I said an 80% chance that we wouldn't enter a recession but then after I made this prediction the government shut down dragged on longer than a government shutdown

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