Negotiations as strategic fog

In 2025, Ukraine is facing unprecedented pressure from one of its key partners, the United States. The Trump administration has chosen not to act as Ukraine’s ally, but rather as a mediator between Ukraine and Europe on the one hand, and Russia on the other. This shift has fundamentally changed the geopolitical framework of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Around the world, the language of victory has largely been replaced by the language of peace. Yet under current conditions, “peace” often implies that Ukraine will not regain its occupied territories—and such a peace may, in fact, amount to Ukraine’s defeat. In this episode, we explain why this is a dangerous path. We also look back at 2025 and summarize its key developments *** Host: Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher, editor-in-chief of UkraineWorld, and president of PEN Ukraine. Guest: Tetyana Ogarkova, a Ukrainian journalist and public intellectual, the head of the international department at the Ukraine Crisis Media Centre, and author of the podcast “L’Ukraine face a la guerre”, “Ukraine facing the war”, in French. *** Explaining Ukraine is a podcast by UkraineWorld, an English-language media platform about Ukraine, run by Internews Ukraine. Listen on various platforms: https://li.sten.to/explaining-ukraine UkraineWorld: https://ukraineworld.org/en *** SUPPORT: You can support our work on https://www.patreon.com/c/ukraineworld Your help is crucial, as we rely heavily on crowdfunding. You can also contribute to our volunteer missions to frontline areas in Ukraine, where we deliver aid to both soldiers and civilians. Donations are welcome via PayPal at: ukraine.resisting@gmail.com. *** CONTENTS: 00:00 - Introduction 01:46 - US's shift from ally to mediator in Russia-Ukraine war. The impact of the Trump administration's approach to military aid. 06:13 - Trump and Putin's similar world vision regarding spheres of influence. 07:03 - Key elements of proposed peace plans: territorial concessions, security guarantees, and military withdrawal. 08:38 - Ukraine's public opinion against territorial concessions. 13:55 - The "fog" of peace negotiations occurring amidst ongoing total war and Russia's strategy of buying time. 17:33 - Legal and moral challenges of territorial concessions and skepticism about the legitimacy of peace plan negotiators. 20:48 - The escalation of the war, increased civilian suffering due to infrastructure bombardments, and Ukraine's strategy to target the Russian economy. 25:01 - Ukraine's dilemma in peace talks and Russia's strategy of worsening conditions over time. 29:04 - Donald Trump's political weaknesses and Zelenskyy's strategy 30:57 - The security situation on the front line: the rise of drone warfare, its increasing danger to civilians, and the expanding "kill zone." 39:07 - Ukrainian internal politics: the war against corruption, the role of civil society, and Zelenskyy's responsiveness to public opinion. 46:45 - Concluding remarks and a call for support for UkraineWorld.