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Ep 331: Gurwinder Bhogal Examines Human Nature
The Seen and the Unseen - hosted by Amit Varma
The Importance of Reasoning and Rationalizing
Guruindra: I had to make a lot of non-trivial predictions because one or two won't do. All prediction all good predictions will always be probabilistic that there's a 40% chance of this and 30% chances of this so you can't figure out from any one event if you got it right or wrong. A large sample size is the best gauge that you are on the that you are approaching truth, he says. "I thank God the internet did not exist when I was 20 because if it did, I would have said a lot of stupid things"
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