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The Rise and Fall of Varys
There was an opportunity here partly because Tiberius had gone away to a revolt in the Balkans, so eight of the legions in Germany had been diverted down to modern Croatia. That's why Varys was left behind with only three. But there isn't one reason or cluster reasons or event that says this is when he was allowed to take control. So Varys is going too hard and too fast in territory that he holds in the end too thinly with only three legions.