Manufacturing is one of the first things to go into contraction territory because that's sensitive and that's already fallen into contraction territory. A recession has always happened when LEI's have been negative for six to eight months, which we've seen now. So it's not as bad as some of those prior recessions, but it's definitely trending negative. And we also have to worry about the debt ceiling,. The treasury is actually spending money they don't have right now. That's going to be a big showdown all on its own. I think that it has a lot of implication on liquidity in general. We need to watch that pretty, pretty carefully as well and how that plays out.
Itay Vinik is the Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi, an alternative investment platform that brings investment strategies to accredited investors.
Today, Itay returns to the pod to answer the question: can the Fed thread the needle between inflation and recession?
0:00 Intro 6:00 Itay Returns 8:00 Reflecting on 2022 12:04 Equi Portfolio 15:35 Threading the Needle 19:10 Destroying Wealth 26:45 Accelerating Chaos 29:10 Inflation and Monetary Supply 38:30 The Fed is Bleeding 43:30 Small Cap Stocks 46:00 Will the Fed Pivot? 55:14 Economic Recession 1:01:14 Recession Indicators 1:02:59 Hopium 1:06:24 The US Banking System 1:09:44 How to Analyze the Economy
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
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