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What Are You Expecting From the Fed?
If you're Jerome Powell, what do you need to see before sort of pausing rate hikes entirely? I've already seen it. What I would have needed to see was long-term inflation expectations get back into the twos. That has absolutely happened. You've never seen in US history where inflation went up rapidly, that it didn't come down just as rapidly. If I was Jerome Powell now, I would be concerned about over tightening the same way in 2021. All the telltale signs of a decline in inflation are there.