Historical Parallels: 1940s–1970s Lessons

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Lyn Alden to the show. Lyn Alden is founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. In this comprehensive interview, Alden discusses her “gradual print thesis” and the current macroeconomic landscape, focusing on fiscal dominance and potential long-term economic challenges facing developed countries, particularly the United States. Alden argues that the United States is entering a period of sustained fiscal challenges, characterized by large structural deficits and a complex monetary environment. She suggests the country is transitioning from monetary tightening to monetary loosening, with significant implications for asset allocation. Unlike emerging markets that experience rapid currency debasement, developed countries like the US have more flexibility due to global demand for their currency and extensive international financial infrastructure.

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The discussion explores historical parallels, particularly drawing comparisons to the 1940s-1970s period. Alden emphasizes that while direct comparisons are impossible, certain patterns emerge, such as the importance of owning hard assets during periods of monetary expansion. She recommends diversifying across scarce assets like equities, real estate, precious metals, and select commodities, while being cautious of overvalued investments.

Demographic challenges play a crucial role in Alden’s analysis. She challenges the notion that aging populations are inherently deflationary, arguing that extensive entitlement systems and continued consumption by older populations can actually drive inflationary pressures. This perspective suggests a more complex economic landscape than traditional models predict. Regarding potential investment opportunities, Alden highlights regions like Japan, Latin America, and parts of Southeast Asia as potentially attractive. She’s particularly bullish on assets that are currently undervalued and have long-term potential, such as regional banks, Bitcoin, energy infrastructure, and select international markets.

Ultimately, Alden views the current economic environment as part of a broader “fourth turning” cycle, characterized by increasing political volatility and structural economic challenges. She anticipates a gradual process of economic adjustment rather than a sudden, dramatic collapse, advising investors to remain diversified and adaptable.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:47 – Gradual Print Thesis
00:02:10 – Fiscal Dominance Explained
00:04:20 – Outgrowing Debt Challenges
00:07:42 – Inflation Spectrum Assets
00:10:43 – Reshoring Industrial Base
00:15:38 – Treasury Auction Risks
00:17:10 – Debt Crisis Timeline
00:20:18 – Fourth Turning Parallels
00:22:10 – Demographic Inflation Pressures
00:28:35 – Historical Debt Cycles
00:31:02 – Portfolio Allocation Advice
00:50:12 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/LynAldenContact
Website: https://lynalden.com
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/lynaldenc

Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or experienced, there’s a lot there for you.

Lyn has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.

She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor’s Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.