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Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
Dwarkesh Podcast
Predicting
The first hurdle that most people have to overcome is getting used to a clarifying and crystallizing your views about the world. If you're not actively putting out, like, numeracl predictions and recording those to keep yourself honest, it's very difficult to improve. You know, we talked about whether finance firms would want to hire these prodictors,. but it would be incredibly exciting if you lived in a world where, you know, news firms would wants to hire the people who are good at predicting.
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