How to Model Responses to Different Stimulus

If i see a pattern, it doesn't necessarily mean it must keep repeating. But i need to understand why would there be that pattern tha that emerges? What are the underlying forces that create that up and down cyclical pattern? And are those forces likely still come into play going forward. So then i use all of that to try to define the and then ideally what we can do is use that to say, if i push stimulus x, what is the most likely response? Why? Right? Use them as a way to to not model in the sense of numerical modelling, but model in sense of a richer understanding of the space. Try to model responses to different stimulus or different actions.