Understanding the distinction between frequency type probability and belief type probability, and how it affects the interpretation of data. Exploring examples of coin flips and medical tests to illustrate the importance of understanding base rates and avoiding common misunderstandings.
If you could rewind your life to the very beginning and then press play, would everything turn out the same? Or could making an accidental phone call or missing an exit off the highway change not just your life, but history itself? How did one couple’s vacation cause 100,000 people to die? Brian Klaas explores how our world really works, driven by strange interactions and apparently random events. Drawing on social science, chaos theory, history, evolutionary biology, and philosophy, he provides a fresh look at why things happen.
Brian Klaas is a professor of global politics at University College London. He is a regular contributor for The Washington Post and The Atlantic, host of the award-winning Power Corrupts podcast. His new book is Fluke: Chance, Chaos and Why Everything We Do Matters. You can find him at BrianPKlaas.com and on Twitter @brianklaas.