Navigating Uncertainty in Investments

As the summer winds down, and there’s so little daily motion in the SPX, the realized vol spike of April feels further in the rear view. I often suggest that periods of calm in the market can cloud our thinking about risk. Sometimes markets get caught in low vol moods and this is one of them. But low realized volatility should not be viewed as an all clear. A good case can be made that the backdrop is becoming definitively worse.

I argue that the price of insurance is a good deal versus the totality of risks. Options are valuable in light of a building of uncertainty in the economy, in Fed policy, in tariffs, in US debt, and in a dangerous escalation in not just global affairs but in the US political civil war.