Understanding Election Polls and Uncertainty

The chapter explores the public's misconceptions about election polls, discussing confirmation bias and the impact on experts' credibility. It examines the adjustments made by pollsters post-2016 to capture Trump's support and the theory of shy Trump voters affecting polling accuracy. Insights from the American Association for Public Opinion Research report emphasize the importance of polls in predicting election outcomes, with a focus on the close competition expected in the upcoming election.