Mantic Monday 11/1/21
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
00:00
Using Prediction Markets to Predict Students' Past Performance
Bob Greene: Prediction markets like v a m can apparently predict their students past performance, which makes no sense unless there's some kind of bias going on. He says the idea is that market participants are incentivie to figure out biases in the data and adjust for them. Greene: The whole thing is hopelessly confounded by selection bias. If you don't like standardized tests, replace this with some other outcome, like graduation rates or acceptance to top colleges.
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