The stock market historically doesn't bottom until the yield curve is back into positive territory around 140 basis points. That's why I just think that there's not really a full appreciation of history going on right now. So we moved a number of our bond holdings to hold saying don't buy them at this price because they've actually appreciated in some cases as much as the S&P has. We are identifying a number of stocks that we're actually going to either take profits on or get out of completely, mostly taking profits.
Rebecca chats with David Hay. Together, they engage in conversation regarding David's market outlook for 2023, the reasons behind his belief in an earnings recession, and various other topics.
David Hay is a longtime investment advisor, where he is currently the Chief Investment Officer at Evergreen Capital. He is also a financial author and recently wrote the book titled: Bubble 3.0: History’s Biggest Financial Bubble.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
04:51 - Why David believes we will have an earnings recession and markets have yet to price this in.
09:55 - How the tremendous amount of government debt that needs to be issued and rolled over could mean interest rates go up in a recession.
13:41 - Why David believes we could see inflation come back.
17:45 - What impact China’s reopening could have on the US economy and the Fed’s goal of achieving a “soft landing”.
23:47 - David’s outlook on energy and why thinks we could see a third year of outperformance.
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