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5min chapter
The Hiking Cycle Is Over
The Macro Trading Floor
Reserves and Liquidity in the Second Half of the Year
I don't expect any blow up on the upside, but what I expect is just volatility compression. China not to be forced to do open market operations and stimulate as aggressively as they did in Q2 or in Q1. Japan no yield curve control anymore of any meaningful size. The US having to replenish their TGA by a few hundred billions in a few months after the debt ceiling and passes solved. European TST roll repayments to the tune of few hundred billions, QT that continues in Europe. So all in all, we have 30, 40 days left of benign liquidity trends.
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