Relative Sentiment Investing with Ray Micaletti
Excess Returns
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How Much Does Retail Commodity Sentiment Relate to Market Movement?
Retail commodity sentiment is very predictive of equity performance. If it's too hot or too cold, that's bad; if it's in this Goldilocks zone, it's really good. Retail traders always tend to get more bullish as the market goes up and bearish when it goes down. But institutions are very, very bullish in the moment. So that's kind of why we might go higher than people expect here to be on.
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