Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
03:00 - About Dave and his work
06:04 - Are big pension funds failing?
11:21 - A fragile world
19:54 - How Dave thinks about liquidity
25:20 - What does cheap actually mean?
34:23 - What might be next for volatility
41:43 - The next Korean ship builder?
46:19 - Is forecasting pointless?
51:00 - Improve your convexity = improve your life
59:37 - What is cheap today?
01:13:14 - Time for some outrageous predictions
01:18:49 - Thanks for listening
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