Ticket Splits and Down-Ballot Watchpoints in Virginia

Chuck Todd breaks down why this year’s elections may be local—but their impact will be national. From Virginia’s bellwether governor’s race to key contests in New Jersey and New York City, these results will offer a preview of the political mood heading into the 2026 midterms. Chuck dives into Abigail Spanberger’s cautious campaign strategy, Winsome Earle-Sears’ grievance-fueled messaging, and why Virginia voters rarely reward extremes. Plus, a look at how third-party candidates could shake up the New Jersey race and why Zohran Mamdani’s performance in NYC will signal the direction of the progressive movement.

Veteran Nevada journalist and author of the upcoming book “The Game Changer”, Jon Ralston joins to break down how the Silver State became America’s ultimate political bellwether — and what that means heading into 2026. They explore how the state’s service-based economy, booming Hispanic population, and explosion of non-affiliated voters have reshaped Nevada politics, plus how “No Tax on Tips” gave Trump an unexpected foothold. Ralston explains why Vegas’ tourism slump could upend the next governor’s race and how corporatization has changed the city’s character.

They also dig into the state of local journalism — from the challenges of nonprofit reporting to competing against hedge fund-owned outlets — and reflect on the late Harry Reid’s political legacy. From power-hungry governors to the fight for Nevada’s “first-in-the-nation” status, this episode reveals why what happens in Vegas won’t be staying there in 2026.

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of American political scions running in upcoming election and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Chuck will be LIVE on Youtube & X on election night!

06:15 The 2025 elections are local, but will have national impact

07:00 Virginia is a fairly good bellwether state for national politics

07:45 Virginia is purple but is not MAGA

08:15 Party controlling White House almost always loses VA governor race

09:30 Spanberger has run a very cautious campaign

10:30 Winsome Earle-Sears has been throwing things at the wall

11:30 Virginia voters don’t reward grievance politics

13:00 Virginia hasn’t split ticket amongst big three races since 2005

15:00 Spanberger has kept Jay Jones at arms length

17:45 Virginia will give us preview of which way field is tilting for midterms

18:15 2018 class of Democrats has produced some high profile candidates

19:30 Mikie Sherill has run a more contested race than Spanberger

20:30 Ciaterreli outperformed polls in 2021, could happen again

22:30 Third party candidates could swing the NJ governor race

22:45 Mamdani will win in NYC, it’s a matter of whether he clears 50%

24:45 Mamdani needs a big margin in order to have a mandate

26:00 What the results will tell us about the 2026 midterm landscape

30:15 Jon Ralston joins the Chuck ToddCast 

32:15 Adapting to the breakneck speed of the news cycle 

34:15 Nevada has become the preeminent swing state in America 

37:00 The service industry & growing hispanic population define Vegas 

37:45 Nevada is a bellwether for the Democratic party 

39:30 Nevada continuing to lobby for first in the nation status 

41:00 Las Vegas natives are a rarity, Vegas is a destination 

42:45 Trump was able to connect with NV voters via "No Tax on Tips" 

43:45 NV voters felt Democratic party took them for granted 

44:45 Nevada's governor has a lot of power 

47:15 There's been an explosion of non affiliated voters in Nevada 

48:45 Is either major party making a strong case to non affiliated voters? 

50:15 How competitive will the Nevada governor's race be? 

52:45 Does Joe Lombardo have ambition outside the state of Nevada? 

53:45 Lombardo's strategy could look similar to Glenn Youngkin's 

55:45 What's behind the drop in tourism to Vegas? 

56:45 Canada, immigration policy and lack of value proposition hurting Vegas 

57:45 Corporatization of casinos & high prices have driven away tourists 

58:45 Tourism drop could greatly impact the governor's race 

59:15 Any progress on diversifying the Nevada economy? 

1:00:30 Making Vegas "Hollywood East" comes with huge challenges 

1:02:00 Would energy be the best way to diversify the Vegas economy? 

1:02:45 Warren Buffet has monopoly on NV utilities, preventing new investment 

1:03:45 Nonprofit vs for profit journalism 

1:05:15 Dealing with big moneyed interests as a nonprofit journalists 

1:07:15 Local journalism in Nevada has mostly been hollowed out 

1:08:00 Dealing with "donor fatigue" as a nonprofit journalist 

1:09:30 Journalism skills translate well to uncomfortable fundraising asks 

1:11:15 Challenges in the advertising space for journalism 

1:13:15 Why have advertising dollars been harder to get for news orgs? 

1:15:45 Hedge funds acquired newspapers for their real estate 

1:17:45 Journalism has to be done in-person and in the field 

1:18:30 What would Harry Reid's advice be for the Dem party of today? 

1:20:00 Reid died early on into the process of Jon writing "The Game Changer" 

1:21:00 Reid wouldn't be happy with what Chuck Schumer is doing 

1:23:15 Reid and McConnell collectively delegitimized the judicial branch 

1:25:15 How would Reid have handled confrontation with Trump? 

1:29:30 How are you feeling about your Buffalo Bills?

1:35:00 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Jon Ralston 

1:35:30 ToddCast Top 5 - Top 5 American Political Scions 

1:37:15 It's been a bad run lately for run for political scions 

1:38:00 #1 Maine governor race features 3 political scions 

1:40:00 #2 Georgia governor race features 2 political scions 

1:41:15 #3 Beau Bayh 

1:42:30 #4 Jack Schlossberg 

1:44:15 #5 Chip Keating 

1:45:15 Honorable mention - Andrew White 

1:46:15 Ask Chuck 

1:46:30 What if we had public debates where only verified facts are allowed? 

1:50:00 Would state level Democratic parties create a separate platform from DNC 

1:53:30 How do you define "short term" and "long term" when describing politics? 

1:57:00 Will markets dip in Trump's second year like it does historically? 

2:02:45 Who are three modern political thinkers best suited to express our ideals? 

2:06:30 How can Trump try to disrupt the election and how effective will he be? 

2:10:00 Is it more likely that Kirk's shooter was part of Trump's community?

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