#26 – Thomas Moynihan on the History of Existential Risk
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The Evolution of Probability in the Age of Mathematical Forecasts
worked out how much of the earth's entire orbit the earth itself is occupying at any one time so he calculated that based on arc seconds as it was one in one in 73 millionth I think. He published this pamphlet just three years after a comet passed by earth which was like around two million kilometers away and apparently his pamphlet caused panic on the streets of Paris. It actually ends up being the closest a comet has passed the earth in recorded history at least.
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