Is the Fed Going to Lower Rates?

The CME FedWatch tool is pricing a 75% probability or a little more that the May meeting, we are going to be at five and a quarter at Fed funds here. So for whatever you think is going to happen in the back half of the year with interest rates because of a weakening economy, I think the Fed seems pretty darn content with leaving rates higher. The options market is implying about a 9% move in either direction. It doesn't make any sense to me. And again, I'm not quite sure what the market is looking at. Let's play it out. If they're looking at rate cuts in the back of this year, the question one has to ask yourself