Quantifying Bear Probabilities and Multiples

Kyle discusses the most important investing lessons he learned in 2025. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:01 - Why “strong convictions, weakly held” is one of the most powerful default frameworks 00:09:05 - Why customer loyalty is an underappreciated signal of long-term business quality 00:13:42 - Sleuthing a business 00:17:15 - Why reflecting on your own emotions is essential 00:23:35 - Why intelligent investing always involves incomplete information 00:31:17 - Intentional inactivity 00:37:09 - How understanding company culture helps identify true long-term compounders 00:42:25 - Why founders matter 00:53:56 - Focusing on fragility and downside risk 00:59:01 - Why incentive structures are one of the most critical drivers of business performance

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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