You write about how confidence and competence go hand in hand, but in practice they often diverge. The dunning cruger effect is that the people who are most over confident about their knowledge and skills are the people with the least knowledge and skill. If you literally know nothing, you're not going to walk around acting like you're a genius. It's when you gain a little knowledge that it starts to become precarious. And so i could believe that i'm a great art critic because i don't even know what it takes to be a good art critic.