How to Get Lucky, Solved
SOLVED with Mark Manson
Volume, Portfolios and Reducing Variance
Annie and Mark discuss using volume and portfolios to reduce luck's influence on outcomes.
Ask most successful people how they got where they are, and the answer is usually some version of "good timing." Everyone else swears they earned it. We're terrible at seeing our own luck clearly, and even worse at realizing how much of it we could create.
In this episode, Drew and I get into why: the psychology that makes us deny luck even exists, and what changes the moment you stop pretending everything is earned.
We start with Warren Buffett - why a man worth tens of billions says the single most important thing that ever happened to him was where and when he was born. Then there's Napoleon, who picked his generals by skipping the résumé and asking one question: "Is he lucky?" And we brought in Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion who’s spent more than a decade studying decision-making, to explain why we keep confusing good decisions with lucky outcomes.
There's also a stretch on survivorship bias that'll make you rethink every success story you've ever heard.
Luck comes in three layers. And the research shows you have far more say over two of them than anyone ever told you.
If you want to take the hand you were dealt and play it better, this episode is for you.
Get your free episode guide: https://solvedpodcast.com/luck/
CHAPTERS:
Chapters
- 00:00:00 Will Smith's Dad and the Luck Paradox: When Success Meets Fortune
- 00:01:58 Chapter 1: What Is Luck?
- 00:02:23 Why We Avoid Thinking About Luck: The Uncomfortable Truth
- 00:16:13 The West's Struggle With Luck: From Greek Goddesses to Probability
- 00:21:05 The Three Types of Luck: Introducing the Sansai Framework
- 00:36:18 Chapter 2: Heaven Luck: The Birth Lottery You Can't Control
- 00:40:56 The Norway vs Sierra Leone Thought Experiment: Luck Is Always Relative
- 00:46:20 The Farmer and the Horse: Good Luck, Bad Luck, Who Knows?
- 00:54:01 Gratitude as Expanding Your Frame of Reference
- 01:00:48 The Two Ways to Screw Up Heaven Luck
- 01:07:23 Chapter 3: Napoleon: The Bullied Boy Who Mastered Earth Luck
- 01:09:32 Spotting High-Leverage Opportunities: Artillery and Knowledge
- 01:13:55 Acting Ferociously on Openings: Crossing the Alps
- 01:23:30 Richard Wiseman's Four Principles of Luck
- 01:25:26 Maximizing Opportunities and Surface Area
- 01:47:35 The Environment Matters More Than Personality
- 01:59:47 Power Laws and Game Selection: Why the Table You Choose Matters Most
- 02:05:19 Power Law Moments in History: Catching the Wave
- 02:12:50 Chapter 4: Human Luck with Professional Poker Player Annie Duke
- 02:13:42 Why Every Decision Is Actually a Bet
- 02:20:15 The Marriage Bet: Choosing Under Uncertainty
- 02:22:08 No Decision Is Ever 100 Percent or 0 Percent
- 02:32:31 Resulting: Why Good Decisions Can Have Bad Outcomes
- 02:41:38 The Self-Serving Bias: Protecting Present You vs Future You
- 02:44:25 Loss Aversion: Why We're Afraid to Quit Bad Jobs
- 02:53:34 Making Decisions Explicit: Pre-Mortems and Forecasting
- 03:09:56 The Volume Approach: Why More Reps Equal Less Volatility
- 03:16:45 Annie's Bad Decision That Worked Out: The King-Queen Bluff
- 03:42:43 The Luck Paradox: Full Control Forward, Honest Reflection Backward
- 03:43:39 Four Practical Ways to Get Luckier Starting Today
- 03:47:36 Closing: When Opportunity Meets Preparation
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