Geopolitical Dynamics: The Unique Power Perceptions of a Former Leader

Chuck Todd is joined by geopolitical expert and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer to unpack the global implications of President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the international order.

Chuck opens the episode by examining how Trump’s use of tariffs and his zero-sum approach to foreign policy are dismantling decades of established U.S. trade and diplomatic norms.

Ian then joins the conversation to assess the ripple effects of Trump’s tariffs on global trade, how key U.S. allies and rivals are likely to respond, and whether China stands to benefit in the long run.

He explains how Trump’s policies may be inadvertently strengthening Xi Jinping, why the U.S. is ill-equipped to operate in a “law of the jungle” environment, and what kind of economic damage could be on the horizon.

The discussion turns to the rise of anti-American sentiment abroad, the erosion of the rule of law at home, and why the economic fallout may disproportionately affect red states.

They then take a global tour of hotspots: debating the prospects for a renewed nuclear deal with Iran, whether Turkey has fully slipped into autocracy, and the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2025.  

To wrap up the episode, Chuck answers listener questions in the "Ask Chuck" segment.

Timeline

0:00 Introduction

1:00 Trump is creating a new world order

2:00 Trump has a zero-sum view of foreign policy

4:00 Could Trump break with Putin over lack of ceasefire?

6:00 Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0 are completely different

9:00 Ian Bremmer joins the show

10:00 Has Trump broken the world economic order, or temporarily disrupted it?

11:15 Countries will begin to de-risk away from the US

13:30 Trump using emergency powers to unilaterally break international agreements

18:00 China will become dominant in the old architecture built by the U.S.

21:15 People voting for a second “Trump 1.0” and are getting something vastly different

22:30 Instability will force unity on the EU

23:30 Americans don’t understand how good we have it*

24:30 The future of power seems to lie with the autocracies and not the democracies

25:30 Is Trump throwing a lifeline to Xi Jinping?

29:30 The U.S. doesn’t have the right political system to operate in the “law of the jungle”

32:00 China’s surveillance state will check any type of middle class uprising

34:30 How different would things look if we had the TPP?

38:00 How should companies navigate the uncertainty Trump is creating?

39:30 Products from China are already becoming unavailable

41:00 Companies are all lobbying for exemptions

42:00 The hit to the US economy is going to be massive

44:20 The rise of anti-American sentiment

45:45 The first amendment only applies to citizens now?

46:45 The hit to American tourism will be substantial

48:00 Economic damage will hit red states the hardest

49:30 Mexican government has been willing to cooperate

51:45 Trump wants to cut a deal with Iran, even if it makes Israel unhappy

54:20 Will Erdogan get away with smashing democracy in Turkey?

56:15 What to make of the political turmoil in South Korea?

58:00 Will Bolsanaro/Le Pen have their charges stick, or could they win office in the future?

1:00:30 Biggest risks to the world? Is Trump at the top of that list?

1:02:30 Will the Ukraine/Russia war achieve a ceasefire this year?

1:06:20 Ask Chuck

1:06:40 What books do you assign your class to best understand this political moment?

1:12:00 Are we in a competitive autocracy similar to Erdogan’s Turkey?

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