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October 21st, no fanfare, just me and my thoughts. I have been on X all day, and only later realized gold had fallen sharply. Some people thought I had timed my comments to take gold down, as if I could move the market. It made me laugh.
I start by questioning gold's 50 percent gain this year. If that rise is really fundamental, then there must be better trades no one is touching. That brings me to call options, far out on the horizon, like March 2027. I walk through the logic of the SOFR futures call trade. SOFR is the benchmark for dollar short-term interest rates, and its futures price reflects the market's forecast of where rates will be. A call option is a leveraged bet that rates will fall. I break down the math: four basis points equals 100 dollars per contract, 10,000 dollars for a hundred-lot, and a potential half-million profit if rates drop two percent. The beauty and the danger of leverage, all in one example.
From there, I dive into the subject that always burns brightest for me: base money. It is the raw chemical of capitalism, the motherlode. Currency in circulation and reserves are its two halves. I describe it as the high-powered juice of the system, created and destroyed by the central bank, not the market.
Then I circle back to gold, the old ghost of money. The US once held 700 million ounces, now only 262 million, yet even today gold represents about 19 percent of high-powered money. I end with a simple portfolio sketch across cash, futures, equities, and alternatives, urging curiosity over tribal belief, and thought over noise.
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