4min chapter

Big Brains cover image

Is Scientific Progress Slowing? with James Evans

Big Brains

CHAPTER

How to Predict Scientific Discoveries

Evans: Scientists are like following, you know, one investigation leads to another. If we basically build a kind of knowledge manifold all of all prior discoveries that are made, we can do a great job of predicting what materials will be discovered in th future. And it turns out by incorporating the distributiono scientists right at a prior period, even before we begin this wave of discovery, we can improve our prediction of the things that will be discovered by 400%.

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