Economic Recovery and Future Risks

This chapter examines the current state of the economy, noting improvements in employment and consumer savings amid concerns about high inflation. Despite positive indicators, the discussion raises alarms about a potential recession within 12 to 18 months, exploring the complexities of economic forecasting and the lagging nature of employment data. The impact of rising interest rates on business expansion and commercial property markets is also analyzed, highlighting the nuanced relationship between economic signals and future predictions.

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This week Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Itay Vinik, Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Equi, to explore their different perspectives on the current state of the economy and the likelihood of a recession. Match a donation up to $100 for your favorite charity with GiveWell by going to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.

Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founders and investors (including Dan) sharing their requests for startups they want to exist in the world, and also their stories of navigating the idea maze in different sectors so founders don’t have to reinvent the wheel anymore. The first episode is out now - we over better dating apps, references as a service, and WeWork for productivity

Watch and Subscribe on Substack: https://requestforstartups.substack.com/p/receipt-based-dating-reference-checks
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/request-for-startups-with-erik-torenberg/id1728659822
Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/739L1LR32QI2XyoZlRh5nv

RECOMMENDED PODCAST: History 102 with WhatifAltHist

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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

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Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they’ve found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you’ve never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout.

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Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co

LINKS:

- Noahpinion on Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

X / TWITTER:

@VinikItay (Itay)

@eriktorenberg (Erik)

@noahpinion (Noah)

@Econ102_Podcast (Econ 102)

@TurpentineMedia

TIMESTAMPS

(00:20) Intro

(01:03) The current state of U.S. economy