The Importance of Clear, Well Thought Out Answers

In 2016 respondents predicted AI would be able to write high school essays that would receive high grades in 2023. In 2022 their median prediction extended out to 2025. How did they get so much worse? The survey asked the same questions in multiple different ways. If experts give a 50% probability of AI classifying images in 10 years, it should be 50%. It wasn't. Many of these experts were people who invented a new computer vision program or helped robot arms assemble cars. They might never have thought about the problem in these exact terms before.