The Stale Mate Scenario and the Whatever Sonario

If buten is ousted, it's not going to be a flowering of democracy. It will be a military coup by a small junta of disaffected generals. This junta will not be interested in retreating from ukraine - that would undermine their own basis of legitimacy. But they will be interested in ceasing the fighting. So whatever the battle lines are in yer, the generals will try to make a treaty. They'll retreat. And might still insist on a large militarized zone.