SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan
Top Traders Unplugged
Why Optimization Breeds Fragility
Richard examines the emotional lure of optimization and how tight calibration accumulates hidden assumptions that cause abrupt failures.
The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026
03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following
08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist
12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning
14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery
17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following
23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking
28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now
40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden
49:54 - Prediction versus participation
53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility
01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control
01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead
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