Can You Trust Your Gut? with Gerd Gigerenzer, PhD | MGC Ep. 77
The Mind-Gut Conversation
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Navigating Uncertainty: The Limits of Prediction
This chapter explores the unpredictability of key events, like stock market fluctuations, through concepts such as 'black swans' and the 'turkey illusion.' It discusses the intricacies of decision-making under uncertainty, contrasting Bayesian probability with heuristic strategies, and emphasizes the brain's role as a predictive machine. The chapter also analyzes the implications of these insights for artificial intelligence, showcasing how simple heuristics can outperform complex algorithms in volatile situations.
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