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#73 A Guide to Plotting Inferences & Uncertainties of Bayesian Models, with Jessica Hullman

Learning Bayesian Statistics

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Using Bayesian Models of Cognition to Understand People's Bias

Cognitive scientists would call it Bayesian models of cognition, but we can then use how much people deviate from like rational Bayesian updating as a way to sort of understand what are people's biases. So you do see this bias where they overestimate from small samples, but you see a much more extreme bias where no matter how much data you show people, people are never certain about the parameter estimate. This has been called non belief in the law of large numbers. And I think this is one of the most sort of strongest biases we've seen in these style of experiments. We have found that actually what appears to be much worse is people under updating their beliefs when they have a large

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