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Breaking the Market (EP.23)

Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

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How to Set an Expected Return for Gold

I'm buying that you're buying a yield to maturity. The yield to maturity is an expected geometric return. But the security is going to fluctuate through time. And therefore, the arithmetic mean of that security is higher than the geometric mean definitionally. I don't have a really good answer for how we set an expected return for gold. It seems to be reasonably good over long time stretches but makes mistakes at times.

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