Intro

Stephen Perrenod is an astrophysicist and technology consultant with over 30 years of experience in high performance computing. He’s the author of two books on cosmology and has been writing and speaking about Bitcoin for a decade.

› https://twitter.com/moneyordebt› http://stephenperrenod.substack.com

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🕑 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 - Introduction to Stephen Perrenod and Bitcoin Journey

03:02 - Understanding Bitcoin's Security and Network Effects

05:49 - The Concept of Money 3.0 and Its Significance

08:55 - Exploring Power Laws in Bitcoin's Growth

11:36 - The Role of Cryptography and Mining in Bitcoin

14:55 - The Dynamics of Bitcoin's Value and Market Behavior

17:43 - The Influence of Events on Bitcoin's Power Law

20:38 - The Future of Bitcoin and Its Adoption Potential

39:11 - The Future of Bitcoin as a Financial Asset

42:01 - Supply Dynamics and Market Behavior

48:26 - Network Effects and Adoption Trajectories

50:17 - Potential Market Cap Hurdles for Bitcoin

53:26 - Volatility, Stability, and Institutional Adoption

58:26 - Understanding Bitcoin's Market Efficiency

01:01:37 - The Importance of Long-Term Perspectives

01:08:02 - Path to Bitcoin's Future Valuation

01:08:21 - Forecasting Bitcoin's Growth and Bubbles

01:13:13 - Market Dynamics: Retail vs. Corporate Interest

01:15:19 - The Network Effect and Adoption

01:17:20 - Understanding the Kelly Criterion for Investment

01:22:47 - Timeframes and Portfolio Allocation Strategies

01:27:39 - Liquidity's Role in Bitcoin's Market

01:35:00 - Bitcoin's Technological Evolution Compared to Other Innovations

ℹ️ EPISODE SUMMARY

Bram Kanstein and Stephen Perrenod explore Bitcoin as 'Money 3.0', focusing on its mathematical foundations and energy-based value proposition. The discussion centers on power laws governing Bitcoin's exponential growth patterns and the network effects driving adoption.Key mathematical concepts include Bitcoin's supply constraints creating predictable scarcity dynamics, market efficiency through volatility patterns, and the Kelly Criterion for optimal investment sizing. Perrenod highlights how Bitcoin's growth follows similar power law distributions seen in other revolutionary technologies.The conversation examines Bitcoin's market cap trajectory toward $1 million per coin, analyzing liquidity triggers for market bubbles and institutional adoption mathematics. They emphasize Bitcoin's technological evolution mirrors other network-effect innovations, where value increases exponentially with user adoption rather than linearly.The mathematical thesis: Bitcoin's fixed supply algorithm combined with growing network adoption creates a deflationary asset with predictable long-term price appreciation, making the million-dollar target a mathematical probability rather than speculation.