Is the 10 Year Treasury Bond a Wash?

I think this year, I would say the 10 year bond is a wash, because I think that we may be near the peak in in terminal in the implied terminal policy rate. The problem you've got is that term premium, which is so negative, can almost only go up from here. So I don't think you're going to get much gain, really from owning longer dated Treasuries this year. If you want to play the Treasury market, it makes much more sense to look at the sort of a mid-duration area or something like that.

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