Cognitive Biases: Understanding Mistakes and Future Decisions

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#695: Shane Parrish on Wisdom from Warren Buffett, Rules for Better Thinking, How to Reduce Blind Spots, The Dangers of Mental Models, and More

The Tim Ferriss Show

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CHAPTER

Cognitive Biases: Understanding Mistakes and Future Decisions

This chapter explores the complex relationship between cognitive biases and decision-making, focusing on how successful investors manage these biases. It highlights the irony of individuals often talking themselves out of recognizing their own cognitive traps while reflecting on lessons from past mistakes.

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Brought to you by Momentous high-quality supplements, Eight Sleep’s Pod Cover sleeping solution for dynamic cooling and heating, and AG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement.

Shane Parrish (@ShaneAParrish) is the entrepreneur and wisdom seeker behind Farnam Street and the host of The Knowledge Project podcast, where he focuses on mastering the best of what other people have already figured out. Shane's popular online course, Decision by Design, has helped thousands of executives, leaders, and managers around the world learn the repeatable behaviors that improve results. His work has been featured in nearly every major publication, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Forbes.

Shane is the author of Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results.

Please enjoy!

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This episode is also brought to you by Momentous high-quality supplements! Momentous offers high-quality supplements and products across a broad spectrum of categories, and I’ve been testing their products for months now. I’ve been using their magnesium threonate, apigenin, and L-theanine daily, all of which have helped me improve the onset, quality, and duration of my sleep. The Momentous Sleep Pack conveniently delivers all three in one single blend. I’ve also been using Momentous creatine, and while it certainly helps physical performance, including poundage or wattage in sports, I use it primarily for mental performance (short-term memory, etc.).

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[05:43] The Stopwatch Gang influences a D student.

[10:54] How a low-grade troublemaker gets vetted for an intelligence job.

[17:23] The impact of frequent relocation on a child.

[21:33] The benefits of a challenging education (once the tears dry up).

[31:09] From 68131-1440.blogger dot com to Farnam Street.

[36:10] An early exploration of cognitive biases.

[39:39] "Ordinary moments determine your position, and your position determines your options."

[45:55] Incisive, deliberate decision-makers.

[47:44] Defining mental models.

[50:47] The declaration of platform independence.

[52:50] A Farnam Street business breakdown.

[56:05] Scrutinizing the problem statement.