The Rewind: Uncertainty
The Memo by Howard Marks
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The Importance of Randomness in Economic Forecasting
Economics is imprecise unscientific and inconsistent in its functioning as des bed just now. There can't be a method or process for forecasting that works consistently to illustrate random ness. Recent advances in nero science suggest we are no more than inference machines with various degrees of sophistication in how we explain our thoughts. We use a lot of pattern driven guesswork as we go about our daily lives, or to fill in the gaps in an incomplete narrative.
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