A recent study by Julia schwett and some colleagues surveyed over 200 managers at a british restaurant chain. They averaged more than two years on the job, and their compensation was strongly tied to a performance botus. Only about 35% of managers were accurate about the quintile of the man's distribution they were fallen into. And forty seven % of managers were over confident about it.
There are a lot of barriers to changing your mind: ego, overconfidence, inertia — and cost. Politicians who flip-flop get mocked; family and friends who cross tribal borders are shunned. But shouldn’t we be encouraging people to change their minds? And how can we get better at it ourselves?