There's no question in my mind that we're going to see rising default rates, even if we don't have a recession. The required rate of return or the spread over risk-free treasuries is still below the historic average. And it could even go to 8, 9, 10% default rates, which is one definition of a credit crisis.
In this week’s Primary View podcast, Dr. Edward Altman, the legendary bankruptcy expert, discusses the outlook for debt-saddled zombie companies with Reorg reporter Gaurav Sharma. The New York University professor, best known for the Z-Score formula, cautions that bankruptcy cases are likely to increase in 2024-25, even if the U.S. avoids a recession.
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