The Illusion of Knowledge
The Memo by Howard Marks
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The Importance of Forecasting
To predict consumer behavior, don't we need to make assumptions regarding the overall economic environment? In nobody knows. Even when these things are used as inputs for a well constructed forecasting machine, they are still highly unlikely to be predictive of the future. Investors rely on historical references and the forecasts they foster because they fear that without them they'd be flying blind. But that doesn't make them reliable. Unpredictable influences forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable.
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