How to Predict the Future of the Stock Market

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Pundits are under pressure to say something interesting, so they resort to interesting linguistic gambets. When you ask people to translate distinct possibility into numbers, it means anything from about 20 % to about 80%. The truth is, making predictions is difficult, but many biases also get in the way of making accurate forecasts. Over time, the laws of probability mean luck can only take you so far.

When disaster strikes — from the explosion of a space shuttle to the spread of a deadly virus — we want to know whether we could have avoided catastrophe. Did anyone speak up with concerns about the situation? And if so, why didn’t someone listen? This week, we revisit a favorite episode about the psychology of warnings, and how we can all become better at predicting the future.

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