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2min chapter
You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
Hidden Brain
How to Predict the Future of the Stock Market
Pundits are under pressure to say something interesting, so they resort to interesting linguistic gambets. When you ask people to translate distinct possibility into numbers, it means anything from about 20 % to about 80%. The truth is, making predictions is difficult, but many biases also get in the way of making accurate forecasts. Over time, the laws of probability mean luck can only take you so far.
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Discover
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode