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The Rational Optimist Rationalizes the Pandemic | Matt Ridley
The James Altucher Show
Are These Three Scars Mutually Exclusive of Each Other?
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Alex Washburn, one of the lead authors on this paper, has been arguing that you should be able to multiply these probabilities together. And it's certainly true that his approach is scientifically correct in that he says, we then made a prediction that they would be silent. So they then went to look to see if they were. We then made a Prediction that they would all be different and they were. It's not a case of post-hoc reasoning. They literally made their predictions, three of them, and then tested them, and they all passed.
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