Jobs report's impact on Fed rate outlook

On today's podcast:
1) Nvidia Corp. delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast and pushed back on the idea that the AI industry is in a bubble, easing concerns that had spread across the tech sector. The world’s most valuable company expects sales of about $65 billion in the January quarter — roughly $3 billion more than analysts predicted. Nvidia also said that a half-trillion-dollar revenue bonanza due in coming quarters may be even bigger than anticipated. The outlook signals that demand remains robust for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence accelerators, the pricey and powerful chips used to develop AI models. Nvidia had faced growing fears in recent weeks that the runaway spending on such equipment wasn’t sustainable. Nvidia results have become a barometer for the health of the AI industry, and the news lifted a variety of related stocks.
2) Bond investors are zeroing in on Thursday’s US labor market report, which is expected to either kill or rekindle waning expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month. The September payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. New York time after a delay caused by the government shutdown, will be the only official major jobs data published before Fed policymakers meet for the final time this year. A report showing a resilient employment situation could undercut the case for more rate cuts and dash hopes of a further rally in the $30 trillion US Treasuries market. A soft reading, on the other hand, could revive bets on a third consecutive quarter-point cut at the Dec. 10 meeting and boost a market that’s already headed for its best year since 2020. Odds of a December cut assigned by the market have steadily slipped in recent weeks as some policymakers pushed back against further easing while inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target.
3) President Trump has signed legislation to compel the Department of Justice to release files on the late, disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. Trump said in a social media post that he signed the legislation Wednesday, approving a measure he had spent months trying to block in a fight that inflamed tensions in his own party and threatened to undermine his agenda. The president’s signature marked a stunning about-face for Trump, who had assailed the effort to require the release of the government’s files on Epstein — a convicted sex offender, who was facing federal charges of trafficking underage girls when he died in jail in 2019. It followed a lopsided 427 to 1 vote in the House — where a lone Republican lawmaker provided the only no vote — and the Senate agreeing unanimously to send the measure to the president’s desk.

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