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The Futility of Recession Forecasting as Part of an Investment Process

This Week in Intelligent Investing

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Are We Going to Talk Ourself in a Recession?

If consumers start talking themselves into this pessimism and really getting worked up in a lather about how bad everything is, they may eventually cut back on some of the economic activity that would help avert a recess. There's kind of like a reflextive, circular logic to it all. And yet, who's the worst first half for the s m p since 19 70? So things clearly, ah, don't look optimistic if you're using the stock market as your a barometer, right? It's a way to check the temperature of things out there, and the temperature's not so hot right now.

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