Exploring Clinical Validity and Prognostic Value of ctDNA in GI Cancer Patients

Drs. Shaalan Beg and Aparna Parikh discuss the role of ctDNA as a powerful prognostic biomarker for GI cancers, along with its impact on risk stratification and the detection of recurrence. They highlight key studies in ctDNA that were featured at the 2024 ASCO GI Cancers Symposium, including COBRA, GALAXY, and BESPOKE in CRC, as well as the promise of ctDNA testing in the preoperative detection of iCCA.

TRANSCRIPT

Dr. Shaalan Beg: Hello, and welcome to the ASCO Daily News Podcast. I am Dr. Shaalan Beg, your guest host for the ASCO Daily News Podcast today. I am an adjunct associate professor at UT Southwestern's Harold Simmons Comprehensive Cancer Center in Dallas. On today's episode, we will be discussing the emergence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) technology in GI cancers. I am delighted to be joined by Dr. Aparna Parikh, an assistant professor of medicine at Harvard University and the director for colorectal medical oncology at the Massachusetts General Hospital Cancer Center, where she also serves as the medical director of the Young Adult Colorectal Cancer Center. Dr. Parikh will share her insights on key research on this hot topic in GI oncology that was featured at the recent ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium.

Our full disclosures are available in the transcripts of this episode, and disclosures related to all episodes of the podcast are available at asco.org/DNpod.

Dr. Parikh, it's great to have you on the podcast today.

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Thanks so much, Dr. Beg.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: In recent years, it has become evident that liquid biopsy and other emerging ctDNA technologies are changing how we treat GI cancers, and colorectal cancer (CRC) is in the forefront of this space. Before we dive into key studies, can you briefly highlight for our listeners how ctDNA is advancing the field and how it can influence the care that we deliver to our patients in the future?

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Absolutely, ctDNA is certainly a hot topic. What we have learned over the years is that ctDNA has emerged across many solid tumor types as one of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, prognostic biomarker we have to date. ctDNA has improved risk stratification. We have learned a lot about the role in what is called minimal or molecular residual disease in patients with early-stage disease, and ctDNA being a biomarker of recurrence for those patients, with ctDNA, we have a better understanding of tumoral heterogeneity, both spatially and temporally, getting a better glimpse of what is happening in a given patient with multiple metastases, as well as genomic evolution of tumors over time. So certainly many, many roles and areas where ctDNA is emerging.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: This was a hot topic at the 2024 ASCO GI Cancers Symposium, and we're going to take a deep dive into some of the abstracts that were presented. Let's start with the COBRA study, which is the NRG-GI005. That was Abstract 5 at the ASCO GI Cancers Symposium, and the GALAXY study, which was Abstract 6 at the symposium. So, the COBRA study reported results of ctDNA as a predictive biomarker in adjuvant chemotherapy for people with colon cancer. At a high level, it was a negative study, but there are some important lessons for us to learn. Similarly, in the GALAXY study, investigators from Japan presented an updated analysis on the correlation of ctDNA dynamics with outcomes in colorectal cancer with minimal residual disease. How do you synthesize all this information and help the listeners understand our current state for ctDNA applications in colorectal cancer?

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Yeah. Let's take the COBRA study first. Let's talk a little bit about the design of COBRA. COBRA was intended to look at patients that were resected, stage 2 colorectal cancer patients, or colon cancer patients who were 2A. These are patients where the treating physician would, at the outset, decide that there was no adjuvant chemotherapy indicated. These are patients where active surveillance would be entirely appropriate as the standard of care. Patients were randomized to arm 1, which was active surveillance, or randomized to arm 2, which was assay-directed therapy. If there were ctDNA positive in arm 2, then they were given chemotherapy, FOLFOX or CAPOX. And if they were "ctDNA not detected," then they would also go on to active surveillance.

And so, the plan was that nearly 1,500 patients are to be recruited, and at the time of this data cut, they had around 630-some patients. The primary objective was to look at the clearance rates of ctDNA between the ctDNA-positive cohorts, remember, the chemotherapy and the active surveillance cohorts at 6 months. They had around a 5% detection rate of ctDNA patients. Ultimately, that was around 16 patients. The reason that the study shut down was that what they found was that in the surveillance arm, the arm that was not getting any treatment, they had a ctDNA clearance of 43% versus 11% in the chemotherapy arm. They had an interim analysis to look at the clearance rate between the 2 arms, and what was surprising to the investigators and the community was what was happening in terms of clearance. Why do we have a 43% clearance rate in patients that were not getting anything? And so, because of that, the study was shut down as it did not meet its prespecified interim look at clearance in those 2 arms.

Many things came up in terms of learnings from COBRA. Number one was the characteristics of the assay. And so, you take an assay in a low-risk patient population that has a fixed specificity, and when your baseline prevalence of recurrence is so low, for example, in low-risk stage 2 patients, your composite predictive value is very susceptible to small changes in that specificity. And so, your PPV is going to be a lot lower in a low-risk patient population than a higher-risk patient population. The COBRA study used an older version of a tumor-uninformed assay, so it definitely called into question some characteristics of the assay. Is one-time-point clearance sufficient, and is that the right endpoint? We have seen now, including the GALAXY study that we'll talk about here, previously reported just spontaneous clearance happening in 5%, 10% of patients. The question with that spontaneous clearance is: Was it actually clearance, or was chemotherapy just perhaps in a low ctDNA shedding state? Are you just suppressing the ctDNA below the level of limited detection?

And then in this study, the clearance draw was actually done in the chemotherapy arm right before the last cycle of chemotherapy, again to that point of, are you just suppressing the ctDNA with chemotherapy? There is also stochastic sampling error that can happen in patients with very low residual tumor volume. So, I think this is a disappointing study in the sense that it is still a really important question. There are still 2A patients that recur, but maybe [this was] not the right test, or maybe single-time-point testing wasn't enough. And so, lots of lessons to be learned from this study in terms of test and design, but hopefully more to come. I think certainly stage 2 patients remain an area where I think, hopefully, ctDNA still plays a factor for those patients.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: And how was the patient population for the GALAXY study? That was Abstract 6, compared to the COBRA study. Could you summarize those findings for us?

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Yeah, so GALAXY was part of a large study in Japan that includes an observational cohort plus therapeutic cohorts as well. And so, GALAXY was just further reporting of the observational cohort. So unlike COBRA, which is a low-risk, stage 2 study that was actually asking that interventional question: Can you use it to guide therapy? The GALAXY and the updated GALAXY just continues to show more clinical validity data rather than clinical utility data. And it was nearly 3,000 patients, pan stages. Again, the lion's share were stage 2 and 3 patients, but there were also stage 1 and stage 4 patients as well. And what they showed was that ctDNA is undoubtedly prognostic. They showed very consistent Kaplan-Meier curves, which we've seen time and time again, where if you're ctDNA-positive, you don't do as well.

What they showed was, not surprisingly, with longer-term follow-up – this is 24-month follow up, so longer-term follow up than was published in their paper last year – was that when you test at one time point, so landmark testing, the sensitivity of detecting recurrence was around 48%, and that fell from the publication last year which was around 58%, 59%, which is not surprising as you follow more people. I think single time point testing soon after surgery may miss those late recurrences, but it's still prognostic and showed a specificity of around 94%.

They also continued to show that if you continued to test with serial testing, your sensitivity improves, but what was really interesting and new, what they presented this time, was a clearance analysis. And showing, again, comparable to COBRA, in many ways, in the sense that clearance can be a little bit finicky, especially at one time point, is what they showed is that patients who had sustained clearance, and these are patients that had at least two time points with their ctDNA remained to be negative, they did very well. But if you had transient clearance, and again, the definition was a little bit broad, at least having one negative and then one positive, those patients ultimately, at 24 months, the curves came together with the no clearance curve. So initially, they did better than the people that didn't have any clearance. But if you transiently cleared at two years, the curves came back together.

And what was interesting is that in those patients that sort of transiently clear by 9 to 12 months, 80% of those are actually having a rapid return of ctDNA. And so this begs the question of was chemotherapy just suppressing that ctDNA or maybe if you have a better test you could have actually improved it.

These were some of the updated, interesting learnings from GALAXY, which remains incredibly prognostic. And then the concept of clearance, which I think we have to look into a little bit more as a field, and understanding that maybe just one time point clearance isn't sufficient.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: Yeah, and one of the most important applications for ctDNA can be its ability to inform adjuvant chemotherapy. Its ability to not only identify more people who may benefit from chemotherapy, but maybe even identify people who don't need chemotherapy. And along those lines, Abstract 9, the BESPOKE study, looked to understand the role of ctDNA-based detection of molecular residual disease to inform adjuvant therapy for stage 2 and 3 colorectal cancer. And they presented interim data at the GI ASCO this year. What were your takeaways from this study?

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Exactly. Beyond the prognostic implications, I think what was really interesting was that there was the initial data looking at the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy. So, what they did was they said, "Okay. We're going to take the MRD-positive patients and look at the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy and then the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in the MRD-negative patients." And again, remember, this is a prospective observational study, so it's not looking at negative and positive to guide therapy, but it's just looking prospectively and observationally at how those patients are doing. But what they showed again is that indeed, in the adjuvant chemotherapy group, the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy again with the follow-up to date on the study was different in the MRD-positive patients.

First of all, I guess taking a step back, the DFS in the ctDNA-negative patients at 2 years was very good. So negative patients had over 98% 2-year DFS in both the adjuvant chemotherapy and observational group. And there was no real difference between adjuvant or not. But in the positive patients, not surprisingly, the DFS was worse. But what was reassuring to see is that you can make an impact with adjuvant chemotherapy in the positive patients. And the difference in DFS between the positive and negative patients, with adjuvant or not, was 42% versus 12.5%, in the observational patients. So, it is benefitting the patients who are positive so it does give us more data that, again, at least in the positive patients, you may be able to reverse the recurrences there with adjuvant chemotherapy. And maybe if you're negative, eventually, we'll get to a point of de-escalation of care. Again, keeping in mind the kinds of sensitivity limitations as well.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: Wonderful. And one of the other malignancies in the GI space where precision therapies and molecular biomarkers are making a huge difference are intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Genomic profiling using ctDNA is increasingly being used in this population to inform precision oncology approaches and determine mechanisms of resistance to targeted therapies as well. In Abstract 528, investigators looked at the role of preoperative ctDNA testing for resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. What are your thoughts on that study?

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Yeah, it's such an important area, as you mentioned, in the metastatic space – FGFR, IDH1, all these alterations that are emerging in intrahepatic cholangios. This was a very small study, it was preoperative, and so the tumor was intact, and around 14 patients. They used a tumor-informed approach just for detection and quantification of ctDNA. So this was not a study that was looking at a next-generation sequencing approach where you're going to actually be able to detect the alterations, but it's actually looking for the detection and quantification of ctDNA rather than genomic characterizations. And patients had about a month or so where they had their baseline blood detected.

And I think what was reassuring to say was that ctDNA was actually detected in all the patients with the primary tumor intact, except for one patient who was a very low-risk stage 1A patient. There was some correlation, against a small number of patients, between the concentration of ctDNA in patients that had the lower stage and then the higher stage groups. Small numbers were actually hard to characterize and correlate with recurrence or mortality, but at least, some correlation with pathologic tumor size, they were able to because it was a bespoke panel and you're sampling the tissue and then looking in the blood, IDH1 and 2 were mutations that were tracked based on the genomic profiling and a couple of the patients were able to have their IDH mutations tracked.

So it gives us a sense, a little bit, that ctDNA, we know has a lot of variable shedding across disease states and tumor locations, but gives us some promise that it is reliably detected with the tumor-informed approach, at least preoperatively in cholangios. So may again open some more opportunities for MRD testing in cholangiocarcinoma as well.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: Thank you. That's a wonderful review of ctDNA applications in gastrointestinal cancers from the 2024 ASCO GI Cancers Symposium. Thank you, Dr. Parikh, for sharing your valuable insights with us on the podcast today.

Dr. Aparna Parikh: Thank you so much for having me.

Dr. Shaalan Beg: Thank you to our listeners for your time today. You'll find links to the abstracts discussed today in the transcript of this episode. Finally, if you value the insights that you hear on the ASCO Daily News Podcast, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Disclaimer:

The purpose of this podcast is to educate and to inform. This is not a substitute for professional medical care and is not intended for use in the diagnosis or treatment of individual conditions. Guests on this podcast express their own opinions, experience, and conclusions. Guest statements on the podcast do not express the opinions of ASCO. The mention of any product, service, organization, activity, or therapy should not be construed as an ASCO endorsement.

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Dr. Shaalan Beg

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Dr. Aparna Parikh

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Disclosures:

Dr. Shaalan Beg:

Employment: Science 37

Consulting or Advisory Role: Ipsen, Array BioPharma, AstraZeneca/MedImmune, Cancer Commons, Legend Biotech, Foundation Medicine

Research Funding (Inst.): Bristol-Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca/MedImmune, Merck Serono, Five Prime Therapeutics, MedImmune, Genentech, Immunesensor, Tolero Pharmaceuticals

Dr. Aparna Parikh:

Consulting or Advisory Role (An Immediate Family Member): PMV

Consulting or Advisory Role: Checkmate Pharmaceuticals, Guardant Health, Foundation Medicine, Abbvie, Value Analytics Labs, Bayer, Taiho Oncology, Delcath, Seagen, CVS, SAGA Diagnostics, Scarce, Illumina, UpToDate, Takeda, AstraZeneca, Takeda, Pfizer, Kahr, Xilio Therapeutics, Sirtex

Research Funding: PMV Pharma, Erasca, Inc, Syndax

Research Funding (Institution): Bristol-Myers Squibb, Genentech, Guardant Health, Array, Eli Lilly, Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd., PureTech, Mirati Therapeutics, Daiichi Sankyo, Karkinos

Other Relationship: C2i Genomics, Xgenomes, Parithera, Cadex