Do You Think We're Going to Have a Hard Landing?

The valuations today show a very strong recency bias. I can honestly believe that yields will keep going up in the near term. But you could also build a plausible scenario that there's a hard landing, and that yields should be less than 2%. You could build that scenario. The question is, what weighting do you put on it? So at the moment we're pricing a very high probability of the Fed going to 5,. which doesn't seem plausible.