This chapter examines the challenges of assessing trader skill over time, emphasizing the need for a long evaluation period to achieve reliable metrics. It draws parallels to sports analytics, illustrating how performance measurement in trading mirrors that seen in professional sports, particularly basketball. Additionally, it explores the cultural dynamics within hedge funds, including the role of allocators and the impact of data-driven decision-making on trading practices.
One of the problems in investing or trading is that — to use a common disclaimer — past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can have a great track record in their stock picks, but maybe they just got lucky. Or maybe they were particularly well-dialed into one market regime that inevitably shifts. Or maybe they're actually just better than other traders. For multi-strategy hedge funds or "pod shops," there's an ongoing battle to hire or train the next great portfolio manager. But how can managers tell who is actually good and who isn't? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Joe Peta, who was previously the head of performance analytics at Point72 Asset Management and has had a long career in the trading world. He's also an avid fan of sports gambling, and the author of the recent book, Moneyball for the Money Set, which attempts to take some of the talent analytical principles that originated in Major League Baseball and apply them to evaluating portfolio managers. He talks us through the traditional approach funds use to find or create superstars, and how these approaches can be improved upon using more rigorous, quantitative methods.
Mentioned in this episode:
Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect Trader
How to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds
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