Why are college tuition, healthcare, and car repairs eating up bigger shares of our budgets? Alex says it's all about the Baumol effect, a deep economic insight about relative prices that explains why labor-intensive services inevitably become more expensive over time. Tyler isn't buying it. He thinks the Baumol effect is often invoked as an ex-post explanation but can't make predictions. Further, there's not enough Kelvin Lancaster in Baumol, Tyler argues—not enough attention to bundle of characteristics that define what a good really is.
In this episode, Alex and Tyler debate whether the Baumol effect is profound or overstated. They wrestle with examples ranging from haircuts in India to doggy daycare in Northern Virginia to Soviet-era ballet prices, touching on what poor countries can teach us about service costs and whether we're headed toward a future of AI tutors and robot mechanics. They also explore Staffan Linder's theory of the "harried leisure class"—the idea that as we get richer, we try to squeeze more utility into less time, making even our leisure more goods-intensive and rushed.
Link to transcript: https://www.mercatus.org/marginal-revolution-podcast/baumol-effect
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Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 00:34 Baumol effect overview 03:28 Critique of Baumol and whether it applies to higher education 09:06 Product quality, Lancastrian bundles, and replacement as repair 15:45 Music industry productivity growth 18:52 Rising healthcare costs: Baumol or improved quality? 22:39 Why haircuts are cheap in India 30:44 The difficulty in predicting productivity gains 34:47 Childcare as a clear example of the Baumol effect 37:26 Are repairs getting cheaper or more expensive? 47:18 The Staffan Linder effect
